Tuesday 17 May 2011

18/05/11 - Worcester

A poor run from Twentynineblack today so two points loss on the day.

Bank is now 94.08 pts.

A cracking race tomorrow at Worcester in the 8.20. Some old favourites lining up with lots of question marks about most of them. Invisible Man is currently favourite but I think there's every possibility of that changing before the off. He ran poorly last time and although given a squeak on the ratings I'd find it hard to justify a bet at around 5/1. Cullahill won a 3 runner race last time and if you believe that form must have a chance. However small field form is suspect at the best of times and he jumped right last time and Worcester's left handed. That said, he's got good form at the track and the trainer's in form. Again, not for me at 5/1. Wogan has never raced on good to firm ground, hasn't won over less than 3 miles since 2006 (I know it's only a furlong less) and doesn't look as good this year as last when he won off this mark. Again 6/1 is too short. Calusa Caldera and Commemoration Day look handicapped out of it. I saw Swing Bill win at Wincanton earlier this year and was really impressed with his attitude and jumping. Subsequently hammered by the handicapper and still 9 pounds above his Wincanton win. The comment in the Post about him needing a rest could well be true as he's been on the go since last July running 12 times. Nostringsattached makes no appeal whatsoever. A similar comment applies to Fire and Rain, and No Panic. By process of elimination that leaves Can't Buy Time. Starting with the negatives, McCoy's deserted him, his form this season looks poor and he's never won on Good-Firm ground. However, he's been racing in higher grades for the last 14 races, his best form is around three miles and his last three runs have been over further. He's dropped to 129 in the handicap, has previously won off 141 and run OK off 142 back in January. He also seems to have better form in smaller fields and he's won on flat tracks. He's won on good ground and the going is forecast to be good in places. At 14/1 I think he's a cracking bet.

Can't Buy Time 14/1 - 2 pts each way Hills

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