I've not posted as the end of the flat season doesn't really do it for me and the 'proper' jumpers aren't out until October at the earliest. The card at Cheltenham looks really tricky tomorrow but the last two races might have a bit of value in them.
In the 5.05 Dammam looks to be on reasonable mark to me. A previous course winner here over 3m 2f on good to firm ground must give him a chance. He followed that up with a third in the John Corbett Cup at Stratford. 12/1 is too big. There's been some money about for Quattrocentro who won this last year. 8/1 seems a bit short now looking at his recent form but good luck if you got some 12/1 earlier.
In the 5.40 Rock of Deauville looks a very short price at 13/8. A maiden with most of his form on easy ground I'd be surprised if he wins. Alcalde looks to be a reasonable bet. He may have found the 2m 4f too far at Liverpool and I'm hopeful of a decent run at an eachway price. Some better prices were available earlier but I still think 8/1 is value.
5.05 Dammam 1 pt e/w 12/1 Boylesports BOG
5.40 Alcalde 1 pt e/w 8/1 various BOG
Thursday 13 October 2011
Sunday 31 July 2011
Bookmaker woes
Over the last few years I've managed to turn around my betting. From the ages of 14 to 35 I regularly lost. I'll bet on most things (mistake number 1) but the only betting medium I think have a slight edge in is horseracing over the jumps. From my mid thirties to forty I think I more or less broke even. The internet, betfair and best odds guaranteed have contributed to this. At the age of 42 over the last couple of years I'm in front - not a lot but in front. The two bookies who have most contributed to this are Betfred and Bet365. I like the concessions that both these bookies offer and that's why I've used them most. So far so good with Bet365.
Betfred is a different story. They've limited my winnings to £100 or £200 per bet depending on the price and some other variables I don't understand. Not a massive deal to me as I don't stake a lot except that I've always preferred backing long shots to shorties.
Last weekend I fancied a bet on the German Grand Prix. I dip in and out of the sport but generally I think the betting market underestimates the skill of some drivers on some circuits especially when weather is changeable. Rubens Barrichello was a top price 250/1 (with Betfred) to finish on the podium which I thought was value (others were 150/1 and below).
Unfortunately I couldn't get a bet on with Betfred because their minimum bet online is 50 pence and this took me over the maximum return threshold.
I'm really not sure why my 50 pence is not welcomed by Betfred over someone else's but it annoys me a little. Ideally I'd have staked a fiver - unfortunately Ladbrokes got it instead at 150/1. Obviously Rubens retired fairly early on.
Betfred is a different story. They've limited my winnings to £100 or £200 per bet depending on the price and some other variables I don't understand. Not a massive deal to me as I don't stake a lot except that I've always preferred backing long shots to shorties.
Last weekend I fancied a bet on the German Grand Prix. I dip in and out of the sport but generally I think the betting market underestimates the skill of some drivers on some circuits especially when weather is changeable. Rubens Barrichello was a top price 250/1 (with Betfred) to finish on the podium which I thought was value (others were 150/1 and below).
Unfortunately I couldn't get a bet on with Betfred because their minimum bet online is 50 pence and this took me over the maximum return threshold.
I'm really not sure why my 50 pence is not welcomed by Betfred over someone else's but it annoys me a little. Ideally I'd have staked a fiver - unfortunately Ladbrokes got it instead at 150/1. Obviously Rubens retired fairly early on.
Goodwood update
Joseph Henry ran really well to finish first in his group of six and finish fourth overall. I'm not convinced a lower draw would have helped him finish any closer.
Secret Asset ran creditably enough to come seventh without ever looking as if he'd finish nearer the front.
A profit of 3.25 points on the day which brings the betting bank to 125.33 points.
Not outstanding but I'm pleased with an overall profit over mainly the flat and summer jumps. Only a couple months to wait before the jumps gets started proper.
Secret Asset ran creditably enough to come seventh without ever looking as if he'd finish nearer the front.
A profit of 3.25 points on the day which brings the betting bank to 125.33 points.
Not outstanding but I'm pleased with an overall profit over mainly the flat and summer jumps. Only a couple months to wait before the jumps gets started proper.
Saturday 30 July 2011
30 July 2011 Goodwood
Some very competitive racing today but some big prices too. A couple of speculative investments today.
2.05 Goodwood - Joseph Henry won this last year and returned to form at Epsom. He's come fourth off 95 before and so 91 looks fair enough. Easy to ignore his last run over softer ground over 7f. Hugh Taylors picked this one but there's still some 25/1 available which looks overpriced.
Joseph Henry 1 pt e/w 25/1 (B365, Hills BOG)
3.45 Goodwood - Secret Asset won here earlier in the week over 5f. He looks just as good over 6f and could run well despite the penalty. 33/1 looks too big.
Secret Asset 1 pt e/w 33/1 (General BOG)
2.05 Goodwood - Joseph Henry won this last year and returned to form at Epsom. He's come fourth off 95 before and so 91 looks fair enough. Easy to ignore his last run over softer ground over 7f. Hugh Taylors picked this one but there's still some 25/1 available which looks overpriced.
Joseph Henry 1 pt e/w 25/1 (B365, Hills BOG)
3.45 Goodwood - Secret Asset won here earlier in the week over 5f. He looks just as good over 6f and could run well despite the penalty. 33/1 looks too big.
Secret Asset 1 pt e/w 33/1 (General BOG)
Sunday 24 July 2011
23/07/11 update
Nathaniel did the business yesterday. He's now going for the Arc where with the usual soft ground should have a decent chance. He's a straightforward horse and granted a good draw will take some pegging back. Workforce hung left but I'm not sure he'd have got there had he gone straight. Fathsta ran on late to snatch 4th but never got any closer. Sound Advice didn't get away well again but doesn't look good enough in listed company. All selections were returned a bit shorter than advised prices.
A good profit of 14.5 points on the day which brings the bank total to 122.08 points.
A good profit of 14.5 points on the day which brings the bank total to 122.08 points.
Saturday 23 July 2011
Saturday 23rd July
Some decent racing today and a few selections.
Nathaniel in the King George looks overpriced at 7/1. He's a course and distance winner, loves good to soft ground and the form through Treasure Beach on ground he hated at Chester is outstanding.
4.30 Ascot - Nathaniel - 2 pts win (7/1 Bet365 BOG)
In the Sky Bet Dash H'Cap Fathsta is back on his preferred ground, course and trip. He's on a decent mark and returned to form last time.
3.40 York - Fathsta - 1 pt e/w (10/1 various BOG)
The trainer Keith Dalgleish and jockey David Allen are both in good form. Sound Advice runs in the 2.05 at Ascot and must have a chance. Very green on both previous starts, he beat a subsequent easy winner on his first start despite missing the break and then finished down the field in a Group 2 last time, again slowly away. Doesn't look much strength in depth in this and he's overpriced..
2.05 Ascot Sound Advice - 1 pt win (9/1 various)
Nathaniel in the King George looks overpriced at 7/1. He's a course and distance winner, loves good to soft ground and the form through Treasure Beach on ground he hated at Chester is outstanding.
4.30 Ascot - Nathaniel - 2 pts win (7/1 Bet365 BOG)
In the Sky Bet Dash H'Cap Fathsta is back on his preferred ground, course and trip. He's on a decent mark and returned to form last time.
3.40 York - Fathsta - 1 pt e/w (10/1 various BOG)
The trainer Keith Dalgleish and jockey David Allen are both in good form. Sound Advice runs in the 2.05 at Ascot and must have a chance. Very green on both previous starts, he beat a subsequent easy winner on his first start despite missing the break and then finished down the field in a Group 2 last time, again slowly away. Doesn't look much strength in depth in this and he's overpriced..
2.05 Ascot Sound Advice - 1 pt win (9/1 various)
Tuesday 19 July 2011
16/07/11 - Market Rasen update
My Moment was really disappointing. He finished last beaten a really long way, giving up a very long way from home. I'm scratching around for encouragement - he might have lost it but I still think there's a race in him somewhere. He runs even better second time out and I think he's a better chaser. In hindsight a Class 1 hurdle is probably out of his grasp even if well handicapped. There were clearly some very decent horses in Saturdays race. I'll be tempted to look at him next time if he runs in a Class 3 or 4 chase but I'd want a decent price.
Bank is now 107.58 points.
Racing is pretty poor mid-week. I may have a selection on Saturday.
Bank is now 107.58 points.
Racing is pretty poor mid-week. I may have a selection on Saturday.
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