Well I did at least read the market right. Our Jim drifted from 7/2 fav last night out to 8/1 at the off. Justwhateverulike was backed in from a best priced 17/2 last night to 9/2 and managed to run quite well and finish third. Badgerfoot justified favouritism and was on a decent mark as I feared.
0.7 pts profit on the day which is better than a loss.
Bank is now 88.78 pts.
No jumps racing tomorrow.
Sunday 22 May 2011
Saturday 21 May 2011
22/05/11 - Kelso
Couple of jump meetings tomorrow. Nothing really jumped out but the 3.45 at Kelso looks a good race. I priced up all the horses using my own analysis and one looks overpriced to me. Justwhateveryoulike is available at 17/2 and I had him down shading favouritism at 4/1. He's won twice on this track over this sort of distance on higher marks. He's won on Good-Firm ground and he ran well last time over an inadequate trip after a break to freshen him up. I imagine he'll be a shorter price in the morning. Of the dangers Badger Foot looks the most likely to trouble him; he appears to be on a decent mark. I think that Our Jim is way underpriced at 7/2 (No doubt he'll win with his head in his chest now!).
Justwhateveryoulike 1 pt e/w 17/2 Hills BOG
Justwhateveryoulike 1 pt e/w 17/2 Hills BOG
Friday 20 May 2011
20/05/11 - Towcester update
No return today. Jolly Boys outing was backed into favourite and ran well only beaten a length or so into third.
No jumps tomorrow so a day off. Bank now stands at 88.08 pts.
No jumps tomorrow so a day off. Bank now stands at 88.08 pts.
20/05/11 - Towcester
Can't But Time ran no sort of race on Wednesday so the bank is now 90.08 pts.
Two shortish price selections today at Towcester that I wouldn't normally tip but I could do with some winners.
In the 6.10 I really see this as a two horse race between High Jack and Ban Uisce. I've sided with High Jack because he has a good course record and the trainer is in form, though ideally he'd be a couple of pounds lower in the handicap. Ban Uisce definitely has a chance but his trainers horses don't appear to be running well - if there were 8 runners I'd probably have a saver each way. Out of the others Home is up 10 pounds for his last race, a 5 runner affair that looks poor form to me. He may be a better chaser than hurdler but he only won off 95 over hurdles and on 100 he looks handicapped up to his best. All the others seem to be out of form, badly handicapped or over the wrong trip.
High Jack 1 pt win 100/30 Skybet
The 8.10 again looks a two horse race. Ethiopia has a good chance; the trainer is in form, he's won his last two and can go close under the penalty. That said I prefer Jolly Boys Outing at the bigger price of 9/2. He's run well on the course, distance and ground and looks fairly handicapped. Priors Glen is still a maiden, Ammunition looks high enough in the weights and the trainers well out of form. Dennis the Legend, Antonius Caesar, Chico Time and Kilbeggan Blade appear to have very little chance on recent form.
Jolly Boys Outing 1 pt win 9/2 Betfred
Two shortish price selections today at Towcester that I wouldn't normally tip but I could do with some winners.
In the 6.10 I really see this as a two horse race between High Jack and Ban Uisce. I've sided with High Jack because he has a good course record and the trainer is in form, though ideally he'd be a couple of pounds lower in the handicap. Ban Uisce definitely has a chance but his trainers horses don't appear to be running well - if there were 8 runners I'd probably have a saver each way. Out of the others Home is up 10 pounds for his last race, a 5 runner affair that looks poor form to me. He may be a better chaser than hurdler but he only won off 95 over hurdles and on 100 he looks handicapped up to his best. All the others seem to be out of form, badly handicapped or over the wrong trip.
High Jack 1 pt win 100/30 Skybet
The 8.10 again looks a two horse race. Ethiopia has a good chance; the trainer is in form, he's won his last two and can go close under the penalty. That said I prefer Jolly Boys Outing at the bigger price of 9/2. He's run well on the course, distance and ground and looks fairly handicapped. Priors Glen is still a maiden, Ammunition looks high enough in the weights and the trainers well out of form. Dennis the Legend, Antonius Caesar, Chico Time and Kilbeggan Blade appear to have very little chance on recent form.
Jolly Boys Outing 1 pt win 9/2 Betfred
Tuesday 17 May 2011
18/05/11 - Worcester
A poor run from Twentynineblack today so two points loss on the day.
Bank is now 94.08 pts.
A cracking race tomorrow at Worcester in the 8.20. Some old favourites lining up with lots of question marks about most of them. Invisible Man is currently favourite but I think there's every possibility of that changing before the off. He ran poorly last time and although given a squeak on the ratings I'd find it hard to justify a bet at around 5/1. Cullahill won a 3 runner race last time and if you believe that form must have a chance. However small field form is suspect at the best of times and he jumped right last time and Worcester's left handed. That said, he's got good form at the track and the trainer's in form. Again, not for me at 5/1. Wogan has never raced on good to firm ground, hasn't won over less than 3 miles since 2006 (I know it's only a furlong less) and doesn't look as good this year as last when he won off this mark. Again 6/1 is too short. Calusa Caldera and Commemoration Day look handicapped out of it. I saw Swing Bill win at Wincanton earlier this year and was really impressed with his attitude and jumping. Subsequently hammered by the handicapper and still 9 pounds above his Wincanton win. The comment in the Post about him needing a rest could well be true as he's been on the go since last July running 12 times. Nostringsattached makes no appeal whatsoever. A similar comment applies to Fire and Rain, and No Panic. By process of elimination that leaves Can't Buy Time. Starting with the negatives, McCoy's deserted him, his form this season looks poor and he's never won on Good-Firm ground. However, he's been racing in higher grades for the last 14 races, his best form is around three miles and his last three runs have been over further. He's dropped to 129 in the handicap, has previously won off 141 and run OK off 142 back in January. He also seems to have better form in smaller fields and he's won on flat tracks. He's won on good ground and the going is forecast to be good in places. At 14/1 I think he's a cracking bet.
Can't Buy Time 14/1 - 2 pts each way Hills
Bank is now 94.08 pts.
A cracking race tomorrow at Worcester in the 8.20. Some old favourites lining up with lots of question marks about most of them. Invisible Man is currently favourite but I think there's every possibility of that changing before the off. He ran poorly last time and although given a squeak on the ratings I'd find it hard to justify a bet at around 5/1. Cullahill won a 3 runner race last time and if you believe that form must have a chance. However small field form is suspect at the best of times and he jumped right last time and Worcester's left handed. That said, he's got good form at the track and the trainer's in form. Again, not for me at 5/1. Wogan has never raced on good to firm ground, hasn't won over less than 3 miles since 2006 (I know it's only a furlong less) and doesn't look as good this year as last when he won off this mark. Again 6/1 is too short. Calusa Caldera and Commemoration Day look handicapped out of it. I saw Swing Bill win at Wincanton earlier this year and was really impressed with his attitude and jumping. Subsequently hammered by the handicapper and still 9 pounds above his Wincanton win. The comment in the Post about him needing a rest could well be true as he's been on the go since last July running 12 times. Nostringsattached makes no appeal whatsoever. A similar comment applies to Fire and Rain, and No Panic. By process of elimination that leaves Can't Buy Time. Starting with the negatives, McCoy's deserted him, his form this season looks poor and he's never won on Good-Firm ground. However, he's been racing in higher grades for the last 14 races, his best form is around three miles and his last three runs have been over further. He's dropped to 129 in the handicap, has previously won off 141 and run OK off 142 back in January. He also seems to have better form in smaller fields and he's won on flat tracks. He's won on good ground and the going is forecast to be good in places. At 14/1 I think he's a cracking bet.
Can't Buy Time 14/1 - 2 pts each way Hills
Monday 16 May 2011
17/05/11 - Southwell
The 4.40 includes a couple of horses that I've tipped before. Sky Calling and Rampant Ronnie. Sky Calling is 11/10 favorite for this based on his easy chase win at Worcester recently. If he reproduces that form he should win but his price is too short for me to recommend at bet. He also won his last race on the bridle and I'm not sure how much he'll find off it should any of the others be up to challenging him. Rampant Ronnie travelled quite well on his first run for 10 months last time, got squeezed going over one of the hurdles and then his rider gave up. I think he is better than the 47 length beating in the form book! He's been dropped a few pounds as well and I think he has a decent each way chance, however I was hoping he would be better than the current 10/1. Twentynineblack looks really well handicapped to me. He ran pretty well last time at Hexham where he looked like the winner over the second last, he was then outpaced and after the last his rider didn't ride him out to any degree once beaten. He has been dropped 6 pounds by the handicapper and a 12/1 looks a sound each way bet. Out of the others only Alfloramore has any appeal but I think he's in the grip of the handicapper and short enough at 6/1.
Twentynineblack 1 pt e/w 12/1 B365 BOG
Twentynineblack 1 pt e/w 12/1 B365 BOG
16/05/11 - Newton Abbot update
Sky Calling was a non runner and Marodima wasn't beaten that far into third. For the purposes of the blog I'll settle at the SP of 12/1 as I advised BOG. Return on day is 4.4 points which is 1.4 points profit.
Sky Calling is entered at Southwell tomorrow I notice over hurdles without his penalty. I'm not sure what excuse they gave for today! I imagine he'll be shortish odds.
A couple of decent races at Southwell and Towcester tomorrow. I'll post later if I come up with a selection.
Betting bank is now 96.08 points.
Sunday 15 May 2011
16/05/11 - Newton Abbot
A non runner today so no change to the betting bank.
A couple of good races at Newton Abbot tomorrow. I've chosen the 3.50 because it looks a bit easier than the others. Only Paddy Power has priced this up at time of writing.
Dominican Monk is interesting and the fact he's 12 will put a few people off. He's probably off a mark that he could win with but his hurdle run last time was poor off only two pounds higher. I wonder if he doesn't like Good-Firm ground as much as he did because his more recent form on this ground is not up to that on slighter softer. Alternatively you could argue that he's a better chaser and the hurdle run may have put him spot on for this - he has won after switching codes before. 12/1 doesn't appeal but at 20/1 I'd be interested.
Marodima has been highly tried in his time, he ran in an Arkle and a Queen Mother. He's on a very tempting mark of 115 and will go on the ground. He won off 114 over hurdles back in February and although there have been 3 runs since and 2 of them have been poor you can make excuses for them. I think he's better in lower grade races giving weight away and I think 14/1 is generous.
Exulto is handicapped up to the best of his hurdle form and jumped poorly last time. Beside the Fire ran poorly over hurdles last time and this is a big ask for first time over fences. There is no reason I can see why Amble Forge will reverse the form with Sky Calling. Misamon has been tailed off last two starts. Deputy Dog clearly has some form but at 5/1 looks at little short as he probably will be better over further. Papradon has been running OK on this sort of mark for the last 7 races. That said he hasn't got his head in front and the handicapper seems to be in front of him; at 5/1 he's too short.
The favourite Sky Calling looks solid, he won a week ago and has a 7 pound penalty for that. That's probably fair and he previously won off 3 pounds less than he going to carry tomorrow over hurdles. He's the most likely winner but I'd prefer a little bigger than 2/1 about him before I got too involved.
My advice is therefore;
1pt e/w Marodima 14/1 Paddy Power BOG
1 pt win Sky Calling 2/1 Paddy Power BOG
A couple of good races at Newton Abbot tomorrow. I've chosen the 3.50 because it looks a bit easier than the others. Only Paddy Power has priced this up at time of writing.
Dominican Monk is interesting and the fact he's 12 will put a few people off. He's probably off a mark that he could win with but his hurdle run last time was poor off only two pounds higher. I wonder if he doesn't like Good-Firm ground as much as he did because his more recent form on this ground is not up to that on slighter softer. Alternatively you could argue that he's a better chaser and the hurdle run may have put him spot on for this - he has won after switching codes before. 12/1 doesn't appeal but at 20/1 I'd be interested.
Marodima has been highly tried in his time, he ran in an Arkle and a Queen Mother. He's on a very tempting mark of 115 and will go on the ground. He won off 114 over hurdles back in February and although there have been 3 runs since and 2 of them have been poor you can make excuses for them. I think he's better in lower grade races giving weight away and I think 14/1 is generous.
Exulto is handicapped up to the best of his hurdle form and jumped poorly last time. Beside the Fire ran poorly over hurdles last time and this is a big ask for first time over fences. There is no reason I can see why Amble Forge will reverse the form with Sky Calling. Misamon has been tailed off last two starts. Deputy Dog clearly has some form but at 5/1 looks at little short as he probably will be better over further. Papradon has been running OK on this sort of mark for the last 7 races. That said he hasn't got his head in front and the handicapper seems to be in front of him; at 5/1 he's too short.
The favourite Sky Calling looks solid, he won a week ago and has a 7 pound penalty for that. That's probably fair and he previously won off 3 pounds less than he going to carry tomorrow over hurdles. He's the most likely winner but I'd prefer a little bigger than 2/1 about him before I got too involved.
My advice is therefore;
1pt e/w Marodima 14/1 Paddy Power BOG
1 pt win Sky Calling 2/1 Paddy Power BOG
15/05/11 - Market Rasen
No luck yesterday, one point loss on the day - bank now 94.68 points.
First race at Market Rasen 2.00.
Another poor race; you'd think the first three in the betting would have this sewn up.
Private Story has the best flat form by far and his trainer is in form. However he hasn't run for 212 days and in his last two flats he finished last. He only got his head in front once in ten runs on the flat and that was in a maiden. Enough negatives to put me off.
Phoenix Flight has been running over further and was beaten odds on last time. A stayer on the flat this might be a bit sharp for him.
Magic Prospect looks like he has the best form to me at around this distance and I'm not sure why he's the outsider of the three principles. Currently 4/1 if he reaches 5/1 I'd have a decent each way bet on him.
Out of the outsiders, Granwood, takes my eye at 50/1. He's improved in his two bumper runs and in his last run the race had a couple of previous winners in it. Speculative, but I think he has the ability to run into a place. Also, Betfred limited me to £1.65 e/w on him this morning!
0.5 point e/w Granwood 50/1 Betfred/Paddy Power BOG
First race at Market Rasen 2.00.
Another poor race; you'd think the first three in the betting would have this sewn up.
Private Story has the best flat form by far and his trainer is in form. However he hasn't run for 212 days and in his last two flats he finished last. He only got his head in front once in ten runs on the flat and that was in a maiden. Enough negatives to put me off.
Phoenix Flight has been running over further and was beaten odds on last time. A stayer on the flat this might be a bit sharp for him.
Magic Prospect looks like he has the best form to me at around this distance and I'm not sure why he's the outsider of the three principles. Currently 4/1 if he reaches 5/1 I'd have a decent each way bet on him.
Out of the outsiders, Granwood, takes my eye at 50/1. He's improved in his two bumper runs and in his last run the race had a couple of previous winners in it. Speculative, but I think he has the ability to run into a place. Also, Betfred limited me to £1.65 e/w on him this morning!
0.5 point e/w Granwood 50/1 Betfred/Paddy Power BOG
Saturday 14 May 2011
14/05/11 - Bangor
The 2.25 at Bangor is a poor race. It looks like there are only three in it with chances, the first three in the betting. None of these appeal to me as a betting proposition. Dineur is favourite and is a front runner which I'm hopeful may set this up for one of the others. He was beat last time by an 80/1 shot who has come out and won since. No doubt he'll be winning soon but the fact he hasn't won similar races yet and he's a short price put's me off. Dunowen Point has failed to win the last three times he was favourite including once at odds on. In his last race the front two have since come out and run quite well (one quite highly tried) so I think he's probably better than the favourite. Tarn Hows has some decent bumper form but it's quite a big ask to expect him to win first time over hurdles against horses that have consistently been placed.
Out of the others the only one I think represents value is Red Whisper at 66/1. He's pulled hard in every race he's had. in the last race there was no pace at all early on and he didn't settle at all. He still ran OK in the end. I'm hopeful that a stronger pace by Dineur and the extra furlong will help him and he'll run well into a place. Whether he wins is another matter.
Red Whisper 0.5 pts e/w 66/1 Boylesports/Betfred BOG
Out of the others the only one I think represents value is Red Whisper at 66/1. He's pulled hard in every race he's had. in the last race there was no pace at all early on and he didn't settle at all. He still ran OK in the end. I'm hopeful that a stronger pace by Dineur and the extra furlong will help him and he'll run well into a place. Whether he wins is another matter.
Red Whisper 0.5 pts e/w 66/1 Boylesports/Betfred BOG
Luck is preparation meeting opportunity
Obviously the jumps season has tailed off now and my knowledge of the flat is not up to scratch nor my judgement as good.
For the blog I've been trying to pick decent price selections in competitive races. Unfortunately this hasn't resulted in the profits I'd have liked. At this time of year this involves going through the form of lower grade horses that I know less about compared to the 'stars' running on better ground in the winter. This obviously takes time that I'm not going to have when I go back to work next week after 5 weeks off (long story). Therefore a change of tactics is required.
I'm going to pick uncompetitve jumps races where there is less form to plough through. If I can't dig up a value bet because a short price favourite looks likely to win then they'll be no bet for the day (unless I think it's still value). My first selection will be the first race at Bangor that I'll post separately.
The title of this post is a quote from an unexpected source. I'll leave you to google it but I think it is a useful think to bear in mind for betting and life itself. Give yourself a pat on the back if you can guess who said it correctly. I bet you can't.
For the blog I've been trying to pick decent price selections in competitive races. Unfortunately this hasn't resulted in the profits I'd have liked. At this time of year this involves going through the form of lower grade horses that I know less about compared to the 'stars' running on better ground in the winter. This obviously takes time that I'm not going to have when I go back to work next week after 5 weeks off (long story). Therefore a change of tactics is required.
I'm going to pick uncompetitve jumps races where there is less form to plough through. If I can't dig up a value bet because a short price favourite looks likely to win then they'll be no bet for the day (unless I think it's still value). My first selection will be the first race at Bangor that I'll post separately.
The title of this post is a quote from an unexpected source. I'll leave you to google it but I think it is a useful think to bear in mind for betting and life itself. Give yourself a pat on the back if you can guess who said it correctly. I bet you can't.
Friday 13 May 2011
13/05/11 - Aintree
Blogger was down all day today so I put up three selections on Twitter at 1 pt win each. Illysantachristina, Victor Daly and Lion on the Prowl. Unfortunately only Lion on the Prowl got close coming second after blundering the second last when in front.
So 3 pts loss on the day. Betting bank now 95.68 pts.
I could do with some winners. Bangor and Uttoxeter look a little uninspiring so I'll have a look at the flat tomorrow.
So 3 pts loss on the day. Betting bank now 95.68 pts.
I could do with some winners. Bangor and Uttoxeter look a little uninspiring so I'll have a look at the flat tomorrow.
Thursday 12 May 2011
12/05/11 - update
Steady Tiger hit a fence quite badly and his race was over before things got going. At least I mentioned the second and third in the blog.
Buck Milligan managed to come third and The Snail didn't run his race.
Return for the day 1.3 pts, a loss of 1.7 points on the day.
Bank now 98.68 points.
Aintree tomorrow evening has a couple of competitive races.
Buck Milligan managed to come third and The Snail didn't run his race.
Return for the day 1.3 pts, a loss of 1.7 points on the day.
Bank now 98.68 points.
Aintree tomorrow evening has a couple of competitive races.
Ludlow tonight
Couple of selections for tonight
I was going to put up Buck Mulligan in the morning. I backed him at 10/1 and then as I was about to post he'd shortened to 7/1. However he's currently available at 8/1 which seems fair value. 3 miles on good ground will be ideal and he came second off 129 last season. Looks reasonable off 130 and clearly in good form over hurdles.
0.5 pts e/w Buck Mulligan 8/1 Ladbrokes
7.40 Ludlow The Snail is a bit of a monkey but at 16/1 I can't resist. He won 5 on the bounce back in 09/10 and runs well at Ludlow. For some reason he was favourite when pulled up last time at Hereford over an inadequate trip where they'd have gone too quick for him. Racing off 115 he's won off 117 before and been placed time before last on 115. A few last time winners in this have chances but they're not 16/1!
0.5 pts e/w The Snail 16/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power BOG
I was going to put up Buck Mulligan in the morning. I backed him at 10/1 and then as I was about to post he'd shortened to 7/1. However he's currently available at 8/1 which seems fair value. 3 miles on good ground will be ideal and he came second off 129 last season. Looks reasonable off 130 and clearly in good form over hurdles.
0.5 pts e/w Buck Mulligan 8/1 Ladbrokes
7.40 Ludlow The Snail is a bit of a monkey but at 16/1 I can't resist. He won 5 on the bounce back in 09/10 and runs well at Ludlow. For some reason he was favourite when pulled up last time at Hereford over an inadequate trip where they'd have gone too quick for him. Racing off 115 he's won off 117 before and been placed time before last on 115. A few last time winners in this have chances but they're not 16/1!
0.5 pts e/w The Snail 16/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power BOG
12/05/11 - Perth/Ludlow
Found it difficult to find some value today. Now obviously value doesn't have to be a big price but I don't really like to put up short priced horses if I can help it.
Best bet of the day for me is Steady Tiger in the 4.00 at Perth. At 5/1 he seems a solid bet. He's on a mark of 113 based on his 8 length second to Cool Mission (at levels) at Ayr over a similar trip on similar ground. Cool Mission has been placed twice since including in a handicap on 129. Steady Tiger is on a mark 9 pounds below his hurdle rating and the trainer is in form. The only downside is that the jockey Fearghal Davis is a bit out of form and has only ridden one winner in 86 runnings. Two I fear at the bottom of the handicap are Currahee and Scotch Warrior who ave been given a chance by the handicapper. I'd want upwards of 10/1 on these to have a saver on though.
Steady Tiger 1 pt win 5/1 - Betfred/Boylesports BOG
Best bet of the day for me is Steady Tiger in the 4.00 at Perth. At 5/1 he seems a solid bet. He's on a mark of 113 based on his 8 length second to Cool Mission (at levels) at Ayr over a similar trip on similar ground. Cool Mission has been placed twice since including in a handicap on 129. Steady Tiger is on a mark 9 pounds below his hurdle rating and the trainer is in form. The only downside is that the jockey Fearghal Davis is a bit out of form and has only ridden one winner in 86 runnings. Two I fear at the bottom of the handicap are Currahee and Scotch Warrior who ave been given a chance by the handicapper. I'd want upwards of 10/1 on these to have a saver on though.
Steady Tiger 1 pt win 5/1 - Betfred/Boylesports BOG
Wednesday 11 May 2011
11/05/11 - update
Island News ran well to finish third but unfortunately no show from Bermuda Pointe. Due to Rule 4 Island News returned 1.83 pts, giving a loss for the day of 0.17 pts.
Total bank now 100.38 pts.
Well I guess the good thing is that the variance is low.
Ludlow and Perth tomorrow. Hopefully I'll have a selection in the morning.
Total bank now 100.38 pts.
Well I guess the good thing is that the variance is low.
Ludlow and Perth tomorrow. Hopefully I'll have a selection in the morning.
11/05/11 - Perth/Fontwell
Couple of selections today
8.10 Perth Bermuda Pointe needs two miles and good to soft ground to show his best. He goes really well when fresh so his absence from racing for 221 days is a positive rather than a negative. The ground is currently Good to Soft (Soft in places) with a forecast dry day and possible showers in the evening. If the ground went really soft I'd probably give it a miss. At 10/1 it's a speculative bet. Twiston-Davies is not in the greatest of form but he did have two winners at Perth a couple of weeks ago and that gives me a little encouragement. Bermuda's record at Perth isn't great but there are excuses for those three runnings and I'm willing to take a chance. Running off 112, 4 pounds above his last winning mark is realistic and if he's in good form he should be placed. The top three in the betting all have chances but are short enough for me in a competitive race.
Bermuda Pointe 0.5 pts e/w 10/1 B365/Betfred BOG
The 4.55 at Fontwell looks a really competitive race but there are lots of ifs and buts about quite a few of these. Island News at the bottom of the handicap looks a solid e/w bet. Runner up over course and distance last time after a decent break he has improved. I'm hopeful that run will have brought some more improvement to offset him running out of the handicap. Running off 89 he looks overpriced at 14/1.
Island News 0.5 pts e/w 14/1 Betfred/Paddy Power BOG
8.10 Perth Bermuda Pointe needs two miles and good to soft ground to show his best. He goes really well when fresh so his absence from racing for 221 days is a positive rather than a negative. The ground is currently Good to Soft (Soft in places) with a forecast dry day and possible showers in the evening. If the ground went really soft I'd probably give it a miss. At 10/1 it's a speculative bet. Twiston-Davies is not in the greatest of form but he did have two winners at Perth a couple of weeks ago and that gives me a little encouragement. Bermuda's record at Perth isn't great but there are excuses for those three runnings and I'm willing to take a chance. Running off 112, 4 pounds above his last winning mark is realistic and if he's in good form he should be placed. The top three in the betting all have chances but are short enough for me in a competitive race.
Bermuda Pointe 0.5 pts e/w 10/1 B365/Betfred BOG
The 4.55 at Fontwell looks a really competitive race but there are lots of ifs and buts about quite a few of these. Island News at the bottom of the handicap looks a solid e/w bet. Runner up over course and distance last time after a decent break he has improved. I'm hopeful that run will have brought some more improvement to offset him running out of the handicap. Running off 89 he looks overpriced at 14/1.
Island News 0.5 pts e/w 14/1 Betfred/Paddy Power BOG
Tuesday 10 May 2011
10/05/11 -Sedgefield update
Glaced Over managed to finish third and hopefully some of you ignored my win only bet and backed her each way or had a saver on the favourite. She was only beaten about three lengths so I guess she was the value in the race. A 0.5 point loss on the day.
Betting Bank is now 100.55 points.
Three jump meetings tomorrow so there may be a bet or two in the morning.
Betting Bank is now 100.55 points.
Three jump meetings tomorrow so there may be a bet or two in the morning.
10/05/11 - Sedgefield
The first race at Sedgefield is truly awful in terms of quality. However that does mean it's pretty easy to narrow it down to three or four.
Rain Stops Play is odds on favourite and rightly so. The fact he hasn't won a race since 2006 is a little off putting but if he runs up to his form of his last two starts he should win this. Takaatuf ran well last time on good ground. Despite winning on the flat on Good-Firm ground back in 2009 his jump form on this surface is poor; maybe coincidence but I don't rate him a value bet at 3/1. Bonnie Baloo has won a maiden point and shown some form in bumpers, but her last run was poor. After her point win she was pulled up next time in a point. She described as moody and better on a flatter track if you search hard enough on the web. Enough to put me off at 10/1. The one who could go well is Glaced Over. However she does have to get round. She seems to go well at the track and potentially has the beating of Rain Stops Play if you look through the form. I think she'll win or fall so I'm recommending a small win only stake at 12/1. I couldn't put anyone off covering their stake with a saver on the fav if they wanted though. I can't see any of the others being involved at the finish.
Glaced Over 0.5 pt win 12/1 Hills/Boylesports
Rain Stops Play is odds on favourite and rightly so. The fact he hasn't won a race since 2006 is a little off putting but if he runs up to his form of his last two starts he should win this. Takaatuf ran well last time on good ground. Despite winning on the flat on Good-Firm ground back in 2009 his jump form on this surface is poor; maybe coincidence but I don't rate him a value bet at 3/1. Bonnie Baloo has won a maiden point and shown some form in bumpers, but her last run was poor. After her point win she was pulled up next time in a point. She described as moody and better on a flatter track if you search hard enough on the web. Enough to put me off at 10/1. The one who could go well is Glaced Over. However she does have to get round. She seems to go well at the track and potentially has the beating of Rain Stops Play if you look through the form. I think she'll win or fall so I'm recommending a small win only stake at 12/1. I couldn't put anyone off covering their stake with a saver on the fav if they wanted though. I can't see any of the others being involved at the finish.
Glaced Over 0.5 pt win 12/1 Hills/Boylesports
Monday 9 May 2011
09/05/11 Towcester update
A decent day at last. Well even a blind pig finds a truffle sometimes.
Autumm Spirit won quite well. The forms not up to much with Photogenique coming second and if the handicapper raises him more than a couple of pounds he's going to need another poor race before he wins again. Hopefully some of you took BOG and got the 9/2. For the purposes of the blog I'll settle at 7/2.
Couple of non runners in the mares hurdle affected the price on The Strawberry One. If Bellaboosh ran to form then it's unlikely Lucky Mix would have won this. I'll settle this with a 25p R4 deduction.
Total return for the day 11.45 points.
Betting Bank now 101.05 pts. Back in profit!
Sedgefield looks interesting tomorrow so I may have a selection or two tonight or tomorrow morning.
At least one of you had a double on the selections today - well done. Hopefully I will be able to keep it up.
I update twitter to let you know when the blog is updated - link is http://www.twitter.com/Seanos1
One day I'll learn how to include links properly.
Autumm Spirit won quite well. The forms not up to much with Photogenique coming second and if the handicapper raises him more than a couple of pounds he's going to need another poor race before he wins again. Hopefully some of you took BOG and got the 9/2. For the purposes of the blog I'll settle at 7/2.
Couple of non runners in the mares hurdle affected the price on The Strawberry One. If Bellaboosh ran to form then it's unlikely Lucky Mix would have won this. I'll settle this with a 25p R4 deduction.
Total return for the day 11.45 points.
Betting Bank now 101.05 pts. Back in profit!
Sedgefield looks interesting tomorrow so I may have a selection or two tonight or tomorrow morning.
At least one of you had a double on the selections today - well done. Hopefully I will be able to keep it up.
I update twitter to let you know when the blog is updated - link is http://www.twitter.com/Seanos1
One day I'll learn how to include links properly.
Monday 9th May Towcester
A loss last Thursday of 5 pts putting the bank at 91.6 points. Other than the review of the cross country race, which highlighted the front four, it was a pretty poor showing although I did tip an odds on winner (Big deal!).
I'm going to lay off the flat and leave that to others who know more than me.
Two at Towcester today -
17.30 I'm going against Bechers Brook Blog here and tipping Autumm Spirit. This is a really poor race and Autumm Spirit is easily the best of these. He didn't run that well last time off the same mark but I'm hopeful that the firmer ground and a longer break will see him back to his best. The opposition all seem pretty poor to me and I rate this a solid 7/2 shot.
1 pt win Autumm Spirit 7/2 Various
18:00 This mares hurdle lacks strength in depth. The top two Bellaboosh and Lucky Mix carry penalties for their previous hurdle wins and the form doesn't look up to much. I think there is likely to be something in here to trouble them. The other previous hurdle winner, Star Potential, won an even poorer race at Exeter; I can't see her getting into this. One that does interest me is Classical Rocker. She won a maiden point and then followed up in a restricted race only being beaten by a head. I would have been more interested if she'd been ridden by a jockey who carry the weight allocated. With his claim and overweight factored in she'll be carrying about stone more than she should so I'm a little surprised she's trading as low as 14/1. Look out for a jockey change. The one I like is The Strawberry One. She's been running and finishing her races well. The trip and ground look ideal and she has coursing winning form. At 11/2 she looks an eachway bet.
1 pt e/w The Strawberry One 11/2 Betfred, Paddy Power BOG
I'm going to lay off the flat and leave that to others who know more than me.
Two at Towcester today -
17.30 I'm going against Bechers Brook Blog here and tipping Autumm Spirit. This is a really poor race and Autumm Spirit is easily the best of these. He didn't run that well last time off the same mark but I'm hopeful that the firmer ground and a longer break will see him back to his best. The opposition all seem pretty poor to me and I rate this a solid 7/2 shot.
1 pt win Autumm Spirit 7/2 Various
18:00 This mares hurdle lacks strength in depth. The top two Bellaboosh and Lucky Mix carry penalties for their previous hurdle wins and the form doesn't look up to much. I think there is likely to be something in here to trouble them. The other previous hurdle winner, Star Potential, won an even poorer race at Exeter; I can't see her getting into this. One that does interest me is Classical Rocker. She won a maiden point and then followed up in a restricted race only being beaten by a head. I would have been more interested if she'd been ridden by a jockey who carry the weight allocated. With his claim and overweight factored in she'll be carrying about stone more than she should so I'm a little surprised she's trading as low as 14/1. Look out for a jockey change. The one I like is The Strawberry One. She's been running and finishing her races well. The trip and ground look ideal and she has coursing winning form. At 11/2 she looks an eachway bet.
1 pt e/w The Strawberry One 11/2 Betfred, Paddy Power BOG
Thursday 5 May 2011
05/05/11 - Chester
I'm not as big a fan of the flat as I am the jumps but I do love Chester. I've been there for the last 6 or 7 years and always had a good time and in recent years done OK on the betting front. Unfortunately I can't go this year but I will be watching on TV this afternoon.
I've picked two out this afternoon that I hope will run well
1.45 Barry Hills always does well here and Captain Bertie is on a really favourable mark and the best draw. Slight odds on is probably value but I'd much rather find some each way value. Belle Royale looks value at 9/1. She's won on the course twice, has won on the ground and the distance. The mark looks workable and the trainer had a winner yesterday. The draw is not ideal but not quite as crucial over 7 furlongs as over shorter.
Belle Royale 0.5 pt e/w 9/1 B365 BOG 1/4 the odds (9/1 general)
4.35 Serena's Pride has a decent draw in 2 and ran in the Cherry Hinton last year and a couple of other group races. She's slipped down the handicap and I'm hopeful that she'll improve on recent runnings on the better ground. She's a bit shorter at 14/1 than I anticipated and I think she'll shorter further because there seems to be a bit of money for her. Speculative but worth a nibble.
Serena's Pride 0.5 pt e/w 14/1 Betfred/Paddy Power BOG
I'm off abroad for a couple of days so I'll update the blog on Sunday/Monday.
I've picked two out this afternoon that I hope will run well
1.45 Barry Hills always does well here and Captain Bertie is on a really favourable mark and the best draw. Slight odds on is probably value but I'd much rather find some each way value. Belle Royale looks value at 9/1. She's won on the course twice, has won on the ground and the distance. The mark looks workable and the trainer had a winner yesterday. The draw is not ideal but not quite as crucial over 7 furlongs as over shorter.
Belle Royale 0.5 pt e/w 9/1 B365 BOG 1/4 the odds (9/1 general)
4.35 Serena's Pride has a decent draw in 2 and ran in the Cherry Hinton last year and a couple of other group races. She's slipped down the handicap and I'm hopeful that she'll improve on recent runnings on the better ground. She's a bit shorter at 14/1 than I anticipated and I think she'll shorter further because there seems to be a bit of money for her. Speculative but worth a nibble.
Serena's Pride 0.5 pt e/w 14/1 Betfred/Paddy Power BOG
I'm off abroad for a couple of days so I'll update the blog on Sunday/Monday.
Wednesday 4 May 2011
Punchestown - 05/05/11
16.50 I think I'm one of the few that enjoys Cross Country races as there's plenty of negativity on the various forums about them. The form always seems pretty solid to me and I think they're a great spectacle.
Obviously Garde Champetre is the horse to beat and he's actually getting some weight from two rivals. At 1/3 he doesn't appeal particularly as he's never raced on firm ground. To try and find some eachway value is difficult. Outlaw Pete won here over a shorter distance earlier in the week in a bizarre race where three horses ran out. However he was hampered about halfway round dropped back to last and had to make up the ground to win. The fact that JT McNamara is on board is a big plus because he takes the shortest way round. He clearly had a race two days ago so you have to trust that the trainer won't run him if he's not happy with him. He has raced with just 8 days between races before so he can do it and I'll think he'll stay an extra mile because they don't tend to go very quick in these types of races. If he can stay over a competitive 3m PTP he should be OK in this. I'm quite tempted by the 7/1 available. Let The Show Begin was in the same race earlier in the week and was running well when he ran out. There was still a long way to go though. He was reasonably well fancied and has a handy 5 pound pull and will obviously be fresher than Outlaw Pete. The jockey worries me a bit though, he has won a few races but none at Punchestown 0-18. Too many ifs and buts for me to get involved at 8/1. Out of the rest Headsontheground seems have lost his way and Another Jewel is not in the same league as Garde Champetre and could probably do with cut in the ground, however, he will probably fill a place. The others shouldn't be capable of winning this.
Outlaw Pete 0.5 pts e/w 7/1 Boylesports BOG
17.30 I'm opposing Quevega because I think odds on is too short against some decent performers like Mourad. I think this is a far stronger race than the Mares Hurdle was at Cheltenham. The one that's caught my eye at a ridiculous price is Oscar Dan Dan (40/1). Fifth in this last year at 12/1, you could argue his form is slightly better this year. Consistent, has won on the course, goes on the ground and is possibly better over three miles than the two and a half he's been running over recently. Obviously he'll need Quevega and Mourad to underperform to win but I think he's got a reasonable chance of a place. I also think Rigour Back Bob is overpriced at 16/1.
Oscar Dan Dan 0.5 pts e/w 40/1 Betfred BOG
18.05 Alfa Beat is thrown in here. I'll be surprised if the 7/2 lasts long.
Alfa Beat 1 point win 7/2 Boylesports BOG
In the 18.40 Captain Chris will be hard to beat but I won't be playing at odds on.
Obviously Garde Champetre is the horse to beat and he's actually getting some weight from two rivals. At 1/3 he doesn't appeal particularly as he's never raced on firm ground. To try and find some eachway value is difficult. Outlaw Pete won here over a shorter distance earlier in the week in a bizarre race where three horses ran out. However he was hampered about halfway round dropped back to last and had to make up the ground to win. The fact that JT McNamara is on board is a big plus because he takes the shortest way round. He clearly had a race two days ago so you have to trust that the trainer won't run him if he's not happy with him. He has raced with just 8 days between races before so he can do it and I'll think he'll stay an extra mile because they don't tend to go very quick in these types of races. If he can stay over a competitive 3m PTP he should be OK in this. I'm quite tempted by the 7/1 available. Let The Show Begin was in the same race earlier in the week and was running well when he ran out. There was still a long way to go though. He was reasonably well fancied and has a handy 5 pound pull and will obviously be fresher than Outlaw Pete. The jockey worries me a bit though, he has won a few races but none at Punchestown 0-18. Too many ifs and buts for me to get involved at 8/1. Out of the rest Headsontheground seems have lost his way and Another Jewel is not in the same league as Garde Champetre and could probably do with cut in the ground, however, he will probably fill a place. The others shouldn't be capable of winning this.
Outlaw Pete 0.5 pts e/w 7/1 Boylesports BOG
17.30 I'm opposing Quevega because I think odds on is too short against some decent performers like Mourad. I think this is a far stronger race than the Mares Hurdle was at Cheltenham. The one that's caught my eye at a ridiculous price is Oscar Dan Dan (40/1). Fifth in this last year at 12/1, you could argue his form is slightly better this year. Consistent, has won on the course, goes on the ground and is possibly better over three miles than the two and a half he's been running over recently. Obviously he'll need Quevega and Mourad to underperform to win but I think he's got a reasonable chance of a place. I also think Rigour Back Bob is overpriced at 16/1.
Oscar Dan Dan 0.5 pts e/w 40/1 Betfred BOG
18.05 Alfa Beat is thrown in here. I'll be surprised if the 7/2 lasts long.
Alfa Beat 1 point win 7/2 Boylesports BOG
In the 18.40 Captain Chris will be hard to beat but I won't be playing at odds on.
Punchestown update
Well Kauto Star ran no race at all. He never really got into contention and the ground looked pretty firm despite the good description - I'm not sure Kauto has raced on ground that firm before. The only consolation is that I was right about Nacarat, Kempes and Tranquil Sea not looking likely winners and Kauto should have been odds on. At least I only had one point on it.
Carrigmartin was backed like losing was out of the question (5/2 !!). He didn't travel at all and was too free and pulling left all the way round. Again I'm not sure he liked the ground or maybe he's better left handed. Either way I'm pretty sure that wasn't his real form and he'll likely win a handicap off the low 120's before too long. Scotsirish won the race which a little annoying as he was my third choice but you can't back them all.
Not too good a day all round the only redemption being Overturn winning the Chester Cup.
A 3 point loss on the day - bank now 96.9 points.
I've got three for tomorrow at Punchestown which I'll post later.
Carrigmartin was backed like losing was out of the question (5/2 !!). He didn't travel at all and was too free and pulling left all the way round. Again I'm not sure he liked the ground or maybe he's better left handed. Either way I'm pretty sure that wasn't his real form and he'll likely win a handicap off the low 120's before too long. Scotsirish won the race which a little annoying as he was my third choice but you can't back them all.
Not too good a day all round the only redemption being Overturn winning the Chester Cup.
A 3 point loss on the day - bank now 96.9 points.
I've got three for tomorrow at Punchestown which I'll post later.
Tuesday 3 May 2011
04/05/11 - Punchestown
The Jigsaw Man ran with credit to come sixth but Quito de la Roque did the business. Quel Esprit was punted into 7/4 which seemed a very short price - unfortunately he was brought down before the race got going. As they came for Quel Esprit I managed to back Quito at 4/1 and 9/2 before the off on top on what I had on at 3/1 and 100/30 in the morning at Best Odds Guaranteed. All in all a good day.
Return was 4.5 points based on 7/2 SP. Total Bank now 99.9 points.
Good racing again at Punchestown. In the 5.30 Guiness Gold Cup Kauto Star is favourite. I could not believe that he's 11/8 with Boylesports. This seems way too big - I was sure he'd have been odds on. The competition really boils down to Kempes and Nacarat. Both these finished behind Kauto in races last season. Nacarat needs a flat track in my opinion to bring out his best (and he finished behind Kauto at Kempton). Kempes won the Irish Hennessey in heavy ground and impressed a lot of people that day; backed in to 9/1 for the Gold Cup based on the improvement that would come on better ground. Well he didn't travel that day and I thought he looked a difficult ride at Leopardstown. 4/1 looks a short price to me. Tranquil Sea needs softer ground and probably a bit shorter. I can't fancy any of the rest.
1 point win Kauto Star 11/8 Boylsports BOG
The 6.40 looks a competitive handicap chase but there are a lot of horses running in this who I couldn't back because they hardly ever win and they've had better opportunities in the past and not taken them. Osana being a prime example. Carrigmartin looks a likely winner; he's won on the ground, trip and seems to be improving. I'm sure AP would be on if he could do the weight. At 7/1 with Hills he looks a solid bet. I do respect Scots Irish who I'm sure will run his race. The other that interests me is Aran Concerto; a real hype horse a few years ago this is his first handicap run. I think 143 might be a little high but his recent hurdle race should have put him spot on and Noel Meade is in good form. I'm going to have a little saver on him but it's a leap of faith to assume he still got enough ability to win this.
1 point e/w Carrigmartin 7/1 Hills BOG
Return was 4.5 points based on 7/2 SP. Total Bank now 99.9 points.
Good racing again at Punchestown. In the 5.30 Guiness Gold Cup Kauto Star is favourite. I could not believe that he's 11/8 with Boylesports. This seems way too big - I was sure he'd have been odds on. The competition really boils down to Kempes and Nacarat. Both these finished behind Kauto in races last season. Nacarat needs a flat track in my opinion to bring out his best (and he finished behind Kauto at Kempton). Kempes won the Irish Hennessey in heavy ground and impressed a lot of people that day; backed in to 9/1 for the Gold Cup based on the improvement that would come on better ground. Well he didn't travel that day and I thought he looked a difficult ride at Leopardstown. 4/1 looks a short price to me. Tranquil Sea needs softer ground and probably a bit shorter. I can't fancy any of the rest.
1 point win Kauto Star 11/8 Boylsports BOG
The 6.40 looks a competitive handicap chase but there are a lot of horses running in this who I couldn't back because they hardly ever win and they've had better opportunities in the past and not taken them. Osana being a prime example. Carrigmartin looks a likely winner; he's won on the ground, trip and seems to be improving. I'm sure AP would be on if he could do the weight. At 7/1 with Hills he looks a solid bet. I do respect Scots Irish who I'm sure will run his race. The other that interests me is Aran Concerto; a real hype horse a few years ago this is his first handicap run. I think 143 might be a little high but his recent hurdle race should have put him spot on and Noel Meade is in good form. I'm going to have a little saver on him but it's a leap of faith to assume he still got enough ability to win this.
1 point e/w Carrigmartin 7/1 Hills BOG
Hugh Taylors tips and getting on
I've only fairly recently discovered ATR Hugh Taylors tips http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=497771&lid=&raceid=&title=Hugh+Taylor&ref=Nav+-+Default+Sub&nav=&sub=&day=
He's had quite a good run of late and I've had a bit of time at home recently and been able to try and get a bet on at advised prices. Despite me being quick off the mark, tuned in to twitter and all that; it has been difficult. My experience is that the prices at Paddy Power, Boylesports and B365 have been cut before you can get there. My experiences with Ladbrokes and Betfred have been better, until today.
I should explain that I'm not a heavy punter (particularly with other peoples tips) and after years of losing I am probably turning over a small profit in recent years no doubt due to better competition of early prices, the advent of exchanges and specialising a bit more on things I'm good at rather than punting on football!
So today I was very quick off the mark and managed to get 20/1 about Hughs tip Anddante at Newcastle. I asked for whole £10 e/w with Betfred. Result; limited to £4.15 e/w.
Does anyone actually manage to get a reasonable bet on Hughs selections?
He's had quite a good run of late and I've had a bit of time at home recently and been able to try and get a bet on at advised prices. Despite me being quick off the mark, tuned in to twitter and all that; it has been difficult. My experience is that the prices at Paddy Power, Boylesports and B365 have been cut before you can get there. My experiences with Ladbrokes and Betfred have been better, until today.
I should explain that I'm not a heavy punter (particularly with other peoples tips) and after years of losing I am probably turning over a small profit in recent years no doubt due to better competition of early prices, the advent of exchanges and specialising a bit more on things I'm good at rather than punting on football!
So today I was very quick off the mark and managed to get 20/1 about Hughs tip Anddante at Newcastle. I asked for whole £10 e/w with Betfred. Result; limited to £4.15 e/w.
Does anyone actually manage to get a reasonable bet on Hughs selections?
Monday 2 May 2011
03/05/11 - Punchestown
No luck at Beverley. Betting bank is now 98.4 points.
Some good jumps racing at Punchestown to look forward to.
Highlight of the day is the Boylesports Champion Chase. You can make a case for Big Zeb, Sizing Europe and Golden Silver. Captain Cee Bee is a good horse but I can't see him reversing Cheltenham form with Big Zeb and Sizing Europe. The other two have little chance in my opinion. Sizing Europe was impressive at Cheltenham when aggressively ridden by Andrew Lynch to good effect. Timmy Murphy gets the ride tomorrow and as he's won on him before, I don't see this being a negative. The only real negative I can see is that Sizing Europe is brilliant around Cheltenham (his only poor run being in the Champion Hurdle when he was all wrong) and I wonder if he will be as good as his last run elsewhere. That said, his form at Punchestown is pretty good. Golden Silver is probably the value in the race at 6/1 with Stan James. He won the race last year (on good ground) beating Sizing Europe into third and beat Big Zeb here in January. He also ran better this year at Cheltenham than he has previously again despite the ground being good. However he probably needs softer ground - whether he will beat an on song Big Zeb and Sizing Europe on good ground is doubtful. There's not much value in the two principals at 2/1 but Sizing Europe would get my vote over Big Zeb, who looked distinctly second best at Cheltenham. I won't be recommending a bet however.
I obviously don't like putting up short priced horses because anyone can do that. However Quito de la Roque in the 6.40 is 3/1 with Boylesports and that looks a decent price for this consistent horse. Winner of his last three Grade 2 chases, previously he came second in a Grade 1 to subsequent RSA Chase winner Bostons Angel. He goes on the ground and he's had enough time to get over the race at Aintree. Out of the competition Loosen My Load is unproven over the trip, Quel Esprit seems to fall or underperform ever time he encounters good ground and Western Charmer has twice been beaten by the selection and the Irish National was only 8 days ago. Thegreatjohnbrowne looks the main danger but the selection has beaten him previously albeit on heavy ground. Reve de Sivola and the rest look outclassed.
1 pt win Quito de la Roque - Boylesports 3/1
The 4.55 is a competitive race. Only Paddy Power have prices up at the moment and it's no surprise to see Tony Martins Nearest the Pin priced up as favourite at 4/1. There's obviously lots of horses in this with chances but I like The Jigsaw Man who beat Clerks Choice 10 days ago on good ground which I think is excellent form as Clerks Choice is rated 160 - he did finish sixth in the Champion Hurdle. Off a mark of 143 I think he'll run well. Paddy Power have him priced at 11/1 Best Odds Guaranteed.
1 pt e/w The Jigsaw Man 11/1 - Paddy Power Best Odds Guaranteed (Corrected B365 to Paddy Power price now 12/1 with 14/1 available at Boylesports, not BOG)
Some good jumps racing at Punchestown to look forward to.
Highlight of the day is the Boylesports Champion Chase. You can make a case for Big Zeb, Sizing Europe and Golden Silver. Captain Cee Bee is a good horse but I can't see him reversing Cheltenham form with Big Zeb and Sizing Europe. The other two have little chance in my opinion. Sizing Europe was impressive at Cheltenham when aggressively ridden by Andrew Lynch to good effect. Timmy Murphy gets the ride tomorrow and as he's won on him before, I don't see this being a negative. The only real negative I can see is that Sizing Europe is brilliant around Cheltenham (his only poor run being in the Champion Hurdle when he was all wrong) and I wonder if he will be as good as his last run elsewhere. That said, his form at Punchestown is pretty good. Golden Silver is probably the value in the race at 6/1 with Stan James. He won the race last year (on good ground) beating Sizing Europe into third and beat Big Zeb here in January. He also ran better this year at Cheltenham than he has previously again despite the ground being good. However he probably needs softer ground - whether he will beat an on song Big Zeb and Sizing Europe on good ground is doubtful. There's not much value in the two principals at 2/1 but Sizing Europe would get my vote over Big Zeb, who looked distinctly second best at Cheltenham. I won't be recommending a bet however.
I obviously don't like putting up short priced horses because anyone can do that. However Quito de la Roque in the 6.40 is 3/1 with Boylesports and that looks a decent price for this consistent horse. Winner of his last three Grade 2 chases, previously he came second in a Grade 1 to subsequent RSA Chase winner Bostons Angel. He goes on the ground and he's had enough time to get over the race at Aintree. Out of the competition Loosen My Load is unproven over the trip, Quel Esprit seems to fall or underperform ever time he encounters good ground and Western Charmer has twice been beaten by the selection and the Irish National was only 8 days ago. Thegreatjohnbrowne looks the main danger but the selection has beaten him previously albeit on heavy ground. Reve de Sivola and the rest look outclassed.
1 pt win Quito de la Roque - Boylesports 3/1
The 4.55 is a competitive race. Only Paddy Power have prices up at the moment and it's no surprise to see Tony Martins Nearest the Pin priced up as favourite at 4/1. There's obviously lots of horses in this with chances but I like The Jigsaw Man who beat Clerks Choice 10 days ago on good ground which I think is excellent form as Clerks Choice is rated 160 - he did finish sixth in the Champion Hurdle. Off a mark of 143 I think he'll run well. Paddy Power have him priced at 11/1 Best Odds Guaranteed.
1 pt e/w The Jigsaw Man 11/1 - Paddy Power Best Odds Guaranteed (Corrected B365 to Paddy Power price now 12/1 with 14/1 available at Boylesports, not BOG)
02/05/11 - Beverley
In the 3.20 Beverley a horse called Yahrab runs. He was formerly top class with Clive Brittain. He has slipped to a mark of 78 and is now back over his preferred trip of 10 f. His last two runs were over too far. The blinkers are back on today and they had the desired effect when he finished 5th in the Winter Derby at Lingfield last year. 28/1 is just too big if he retains that ability.
1 pt e/w Yahrab 28/1 VC, (25/1 Hills)
1 pt e/w Yahrab 28/1 VC, (25/1 Hills)
Sunday 1 May 2011
01/05/11 update
No joy today so a 1 point loss.
Betting bank is now 100.4 points.
Might pick something out for tomorrow but more likely to wait for Punchestown and Chester.
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