01/05/11 - Newmarket

Had a quick look at the 3.50 which is a very competitive sprint over 6 furlongs.

Novellen Lad won first time out last year off 84. He then obviously went up in the handicap and ran creditably off 93 for two runs. Then came three runs on unsuitably soft ground followed by run on the all weather which was better than his finishing position suggests. He's been given a chance by the handicapper off 87 and the trainer had a 25/1 winner about 10 days ago. Only real negative is the jockey hasn't had a winner since January; he hasn't had many rides though.

Price has been nibbled at a bit - Stan James are 40/1 - general 25/1.

B365 and Betfred are both going 25/1 first five places Best Odds Guaranteed. As there are 27 runners this seems sensible.

Novellen Lad 25/1 - 0.5 points e/w B365/Betfred (paying 5 places)

30/04/11 - update

No return today. Loss on the day 1 point.

Betting bank now stands at 101.4 points.

All flat tomorrow so unlikely to have a bet.

30/04/11 - Uttoxeter

In the 3.50 at Uttoxeter there may be a bit of value in Rampant Ronnie at 8/1. He will appreciate the ground, has gone well after a long break and appears as if he's on a fair mark. At the age of 6 there is a chance he is still improving. Most of the others in this look badly handicapped, inconsistent or have no form on the ground.

Rampant Ronnie 0.5 pts e/w 8/1 B365

Update 29/04/11

No show from Fred Bojangels but Elzahann managed to finish third only beaten about nine lengths.

That gives us a return of 1.4 points on the day, a loss of 0.1 of a point.

Bank is now 102.4 points.

Nothings jumping out at Uttoxeter or Hexham tomorrow yet but at least it looks competitive. I may have an update in the morning.

Racing Friday 29/04/11

Had a quick look at the cards tonight and have picked out a few decent priced horses that might run well.

4.00 Perth - Fred Bojangels needs a small field over 2 miles to show his best. He hasn't had that in his last four runs and he's dropped a few pounds in the handicap to a mark 4 pounds below when he ran 2nd in a Clas 2 at Ayr. A bit of a leap of faith he's capable of that at the moment but at 14/1 with Paddy Power he's worth a punt.

0.5 pt win Fred Bojangels 14/1

5.10 Perth - Elzahann looks just about the only guaranteed stayer in this race. His last hurdles run was encouraging off 5 pounds higher in a Class 2 at Ayr and he's won on a mark of 7 above this in 2009. The ground will be to his liking and 9/1 with B365 seems generous.

0.5 pts e/w Elzahann 9/1

27/04/11 Perth update

Fiddlers Reel came second which gives us a 2.5 point return at 20/1.

Gleann Na Ndochais ran well and came in sixth.


So 0.5 of a point up on the day to take us to a betting bank of 102.5 points.

27/04/11 More Perth

In the 2.45 the two favourites obviously have a good chance but Lord Redsgirth in particular looks underpriced at 6/4. Gleann Na Ndochais has some decent Points form and will appreciate the trip and the ground. At 33/1 with VC and Stan James he's a value bet.

0.5 pt e/w Gleann Na Ndochais.

27/04/11 Perth

Some decent racing at Perth today.

In the 2.10 following the defection of Quel Elite there are three horses vying for favoritism at about 3/1. That seems plenty short enough and I like the look of Fiddlers Reel at 20/1 with Paddy Power and Stan James. Winner of two points and then ran OK in two bumpers I'm hopeful he'll be fit and well today and up to this maiden.

0.5 pt e/w Fiddlers Reel

26/04/11 update

Odin's Raven finished 2nd by a neck. So no change on the day.

Current bank 102 points.

26/04/11 - Sedgefield 6.10

This looks about the most competitive race of the day on first glance but on having a closer look there are five I could put a line straight through. The excellent Bechers Brook blog has gone with Cool Baranca, whose chance I rate but I'd have wanted about 10/1. No doubt the 7/1 won't last long. Another being backed as I write is Morning Time, at single figure odds he makes no appeal with Lucinda Russell not being in the best form. The horse I like who is drifting slightly due to support to others is Odin's Raven. At 5/1 with Betfred this seems a good opportunity. He won his maiden nicely on the course a couple of weeks ago and should appreciate the extra furlong and the ground.

0.5 pts e/w Odin's Raven 5/1 Betfred.

25/04/11 - Irish National update

Well A New Story plugged on to be fifth which at least puts me in front with a 4 point return.

Total profit/loss - + 2 points.

Current bank 102 points.

The racing at Sedgefield tomorrow looks a lot better than the racing that was on offer today. Hopefully I'll be able to find some value.

25/04/11 - Irish National

Some pretty poor racing in the UK today so I've had to look at Ireland for a bit of value. In the 4.55 Fariyhouse, A New Story is a somewhat speculative selection. Whilst he is 13 now he does seem to be in as good form as ever. He's been placed in this the last three years, is on a fair mark and will go on the ground. I'm also encouraged that he had a recent spin over hurdles to keep him fit. They've done this with him a couple of times before and he's put in a good run after. His third in the cross country (handicap) this year at Cheltenham is up there with his best form. At 33/1 with some firms he is way overpriced. His price appears to have been nibbled in the past few minutes and the firms paying the first 5 places are generally 25/1 although Stan James are still 28/1.

0.5 pt e/w 28/1 - first 5 places with Stan James.

Update 23/04/11

Not the greatest of starts. Russian Flag was outclassed and never looked like getting into it at any point. French Opera won quite cosily in the end. Tataniano ran more or less as I expected.

Current running totals - Loss 1 point. Bank remaining 99 points.

23/04/11 - 2.35 Sandown

The Bet365.com Celebration Chase is an interesting race. To my mind Tataniano is way underpriced at 5/4. His novice form looks OK but the third behind Gauvain in November doesn't look that solid to me. He has to give away four pounds to all his rivals here and coming back from injury to win this looks a big ask. French Opera looks like he's better left handed and I think he's also better over slightly further. 3/1 looks short enough to me. Oiseau de Nuit has improved a lot this year and Colin Tizzard is in great form. However he hits a few fences and maybe slightly better left handed. Cornas is a bit inconsistent but is better right handed than left which gives a reason to ignore his last two runs. Nick Williams horses don't appear to be in sparkling form at present though. Chaninbar has refused to race the last three times. He obviously has ability but there's no reason why today should be different. Russian Flag looks outclassed by these but he obviously loves Sandown and ran a fast time at Wincanton in Good ground when winning 13 days ago. I hope that he's still improving. I'm a bit worried that this race may come a bit soon as he ran poorly after only an eight day lay off at Newbury. However at 28/1 he rates as a value bet in a race where there are doubts about all of the others.

Selection Russian Flag 0.5 pt e/w at 28/1. (Stan James and Coral)

I'll start with a theoretical 100 pt bank.