Saturday 23 April 2011

23/04/11 - 2.35 Sandown

The Bet365.com Celebration Chase is an interesting race. To my mind Tataniano is way underpriced at 5/4. His novice form looks OK but the third behind Gauvain in November doesn't look that solid to me. He has to give away four pounds to all his rivals here and coming back from injury to win this looks a big ask. French Opera looks like he's better left handed and I think he's also better over slightly further. 3/1 looks short enough to me. Oiseau de Nuit has improved a lot this year and Colin Tizzard is in great form. However he hits a few fences and maybe slightly better left handed. Cornas is a bit inconsistent but is better right handed than left which gives a reason to ignore his last two runs. Nick Williams horses don't appear to be in sparkling form at present though. Chaninbar has refused to race the last three times. He obviously has ability but there's no reason why today should be different. Russian Flag looks outclassed by these but he obviously loves Sandown and ran a fast time at Wincanton in Good ground when winning 13 days ago. I hope that he's still improving. I'm a bit worried that this race may come a bit soon as he ran poorly after only an eight day lay off at Newbury. However at 28/1 he rates as a value bet in a race where there are doubts about all of the others.

Selection Russian Flag 0.5 pt e/w at 28/1. (Stan James and Coral)

I'll start with a theoretical 100 pt bank.

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