Tuesday 3 May 2011

04/05/11 - Punchestown

The Jigsaw Man ran with credit to come sixth but Quito de la Roque did the business. Quel Esprit was punted into 7/4 which seemed a very short price - unfortunately he was brought down before the race got going. As they came for Quel Esprit I managed to back Quito at 4/1 and 9/2 before the off on top on what I had on at 3/1 and 100/30 in the morning at Best Odds Guaranteed. All in all a good day.

Return was 4.5 points based on 7/2 SP. Total Bank now 99.9 points.

Good racing again at Punchestown. In the 5.30 Guiness Gold Cup Kauto Star is favourite. I could not believe that he's 11/8 with Boylesports. This seems way too big - I was sure he'd have been odds on. The competition really boils down to Kempes and Nacarat. Both these finished behind Kauto in races last season. Nacarat needs a flat track in my opinion to bring out his best (and he finished behind Kauto at Kempton). Kempes won the Irish Hennessey in heavy ground and impressed a lot of people that day; backed in to 9/1 for the Gold Cup based on the improvement that would come on better ground. Well he didn't travel that day and I thought he looked a difficult ride at Leopardstown. 4/1 looks a short price to me. Tranquil Sea needs softer ground and probably a bit shorter. I can't fancy any of the rest.

1 point win Kauto Star 11/8 Boylsports BOG

The 6.40 looks a competitive handicap chase but there are a lot of horses running in this who I couldn't back because they hardly ever win and they've had better opportunities in the past and not taken them. Osana being a prime example. Carrigmartin looks a likely winner; he's won on the ground, trip and seems to be improving. I'm sure AP would be on if he could do the weight. At 7/1 with Hills he looks a solid bet. I do respect Scots Irish who I'm sure will run his race. The other that interests me is Aran Concerto; a real hype horse a few years ago this is his first handicap run. I think 143 might be a little high but his recent hurdle race should have put him spot on and Noel Meade is in good form. I'm going to have a little saver on him but it's a leap of faith to assume he still got enough ability to win this.

1 point e/w Carrigmartin 7/1 Hills BOG

No comments:

Post a Comment