A non runner today so no change to the betting bank.
A couple of good races at Newton Abbot tomorrow. I've chosen the 3.50 because it looks a bit easier than the others. Only Paddy Power has priced this up at time of writing.
Dominican Monk is interesting and the fact he's 12 will put a few people off. He's probably off a mark that he could win with but his hurdle run last time was poor off only two pounds higher. I wonder if he doesn't like Good-Firm ground as much as he did because his more recent form on this ground is not up to that on slighter softer. Alternatively you could argue that he's a better chaser and the hurdle run may have put him spot on for this - he has won after switching codes before. 12/1 doesn't appeal but at 20/1 I'd be interested.
Marodima has been highly tried in his time, he ran in an Arkle and a Queen Mother. He's on a very tempting mark of 115 and will go on the ground. He won off 114 over hurdles back in February and although there have been 3 runs since and 2 of them have been poor you can make excuses for them. I think he's better in lower grade races giving weight away and I think 14/1 is generous.
Exulto is handicapped up to the best of his hurdle form and jumped poorly last time. Beside the Fire ran poorly over hurdles last time and this is a big ask for first time over fences. There is no reason I can see why Amble Forge will reverse the form with Sky Calling. Misamon has been tailed off last two starts. Deputy Dog clearly has some form but at 5/1 looks at little short as he probably will be better over further. Papradon has been running OK on this sort of mark for the last 7 races. That said he hasn't got his head in front and the handicapper seems to be in front of him; at 5/1 he's too short.
The favourite Sky Calling looks solid, he won a week ago and has a 7 pound penalty for that. That's probably fair and he previously won off 3 pounds less than he going to carry tomorrow over hurdles. He's the most likely winner but I'd prefer a little bigger than 2/1 about him before I got too involved.
My advice is therefore;
1pt e/w Marodima 14/1 Paddy Power BOG
1 pt win Sky Calling 2/1 Paddy Power BOG
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