Monday 2 May 2011

03/05/11 - Punchestown

No luck at Beverley. Betting bank is now 98.4 points.

Some good jumps racing at Punchestown to look forward to.

Highlight of the day is the Boylesports Champion Chase. You can make a case for Big Zeb, Sizing Europe and Golden Silver. Captain Cee Bee is a good horse but I can't see him reversing Cheltenham form with Big Zeb and Sizing Europe. The other two have little chance in my opinion. Sizing Europe was impressive at Cheltenham when aggressively ridden by Andrew Lynch to good effect. Timmy Murphy gets the ride tomorrow and as he's won on him before, I don't see this being a negative. The only real negative I can see is that Sizing Europe is brilliant around Cheltenham (his only poor run being in the Champion Hurdle when he was all wrong) and I wonder if he will be as good as his last run elsewhere. That said, his form at Punchestown is pretty good. Golden Silver is probably the value in the race at 6/1 with Stan James. He won the race last year (on good ground) beating Sizing Europe into third and beat Big Zeb here in January. He also ran better this year at Cheltenham than he has previously again despite the ground being good. However he probably needs softer ground - whether he will beat an on song Big Zeb and Sizing Europe on good ground is doubtful. There's not much value in the two principals at 2/1 but Sizing Europe would get my vote over Big Zeb, who looked distinctly second best at Cheltenham. I won't be recommending a bet however.

I obviously don't like putting up short priced horses because anyone can do that. However Quito de la Roque in the 6.40 is 3/1 with Boylesports and that looks a decent price for this consistent horse. Winner of his last three Grade 2 chases, previously he came second in a Grade 1 to subsequent RSA Chase winner Bostons Angel. He goes on the ground and he's had enough time to get over the race at Aintree.  Out of the competition Loosen My Load is unproven over the trip, Quel Esprit seems to fall or underperform ever time he encounters good ground and Western Charmer has twice been beaten by the selection and the Irish National was only 8 days ago. Thegreatjohnbrowne looks the main danger but the selection has beaten him previously albeit on heavy ground. Reve de Sivola and the rest look outclassed.

1 pt win Quito de la Roque - Boylesports 3/1

The 4.55 is a competitive race. Only Paddy Power have prices up at the moment and it's no surprise to see Tony Martins Nearest the Pin priced up as favourite at 4/1. There's obviously lots of horses in this with chances but I like The Jigsaw Man who beat Clerks Choice 10 days ago on good ground which I think is excellent form as Clerks Choice is rated 160 - he did finish sixth in the Champion Hurdle. Off a mark of 143 I think he'll run well. Paddy Power have him priced at 11/1 Best Odds Guaranteed.

1 pt e/w The Jigsaw Man 11/1 - Paddy Power Best Odds Guaranteed (Corrected B365 to Paddy Power price now 12/1 with 14/1 available at Boylesports, not BOG)

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